Author: Monte
-
S&P 500 in Correction Territory
Someone asked me today how I felt about the stock market, as it was on its way to falling more than any single day since the initial COVID panic. I shrugged and said “I’m a long-term investor, so I like when the market goes up.” I won’t be making any changes in reaction to today’s… Read more
-
2025 Investment Forecasts
When it comes to annual forecasts, analysts have made a complete U-turn from their predictions a year ago. Last year the median estimate for S&P 500 returns was 4.6% with a 45% chance of recession, and now it is 11.6% for the S&P 500 and an 18% chance of recession.1 2024Prediction Actual 2025Prediction Actual S&P… Read more
-
Model Hedge Fund Portfolio: 2024 Performance Recap
Hey everyone, I wanted to write a note looking back on market results for 2024 and how they impacted the Model Hedge Fund Portfolio. In the next post I will review analyst predictions for 2025, but first I wanted to give a recap of what happened in 2024 and explore a few of the underlying… Read more
-
A $10,000 Hedge Fund Portfolio
Someone asked me recently how they could implement a retail hedge fund portfolio with $10,000. The Model Hedge Fund Portfolio is simple and easy to understand, but it can’t be implemented with $10,000. Liquid alts like Vanguard’s Market Neutral hedge fund have large minimum investments, so we need to look for alternatives. Even more challenging,… Read more
-
Model Hedge Fund Portfolio
BNY Mellon uses a model portfolio with 55% stocks, 30% bonds, and 15% hedge funds in their annual report of market predictions. What does this look like for a retail investor using available mutual funds and ETFs, and specifically using hedge funds packaged in mutual fund format? Previously I wrote about this, calling it a… Read more
-
Hedge Funds For Normal Investors
The word “hedge” in hedge fund means boring. That is the core purpose of hedging – to remove risk and make an investment more conservative. Hedging entails shorting some asset to remove the volatility it brings. Suppose you want to invest in AI so you buy some tech company stock. If you want to remove… Read more
-
Bitcoin Perspective
I questioned myself about bitcoin again last week. I know it is a volatile, speculative asset, but it’s hard not to feel like you’re missing out when the gains are so rapid and shocking. I started seriously analyzing it as a financial instrument in March of 2021 when Morgan Stanley endorsed it as an option… Read more
-
Next Decade Forecasts: 2024 Edition
Single year predictions can help make sense of why the market is behaving a certain way in real time, but long-term predictions provide a much better signal for portfolio allocation decisions. At the beginning of every year, investment research groups publish reports on market conditions for a variety of forward-looking time frames. Two of my… Read more
-
2024 Analyst Forecasts
Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 is up over 8%, multi-strategy continues its triumph in the hedge fund world, and Bitcoin has returned to its all-time highs. What do you need to know in this environment to make smart investing decisions? The good news is probably nothing. Default investments like target date… Read more